Hillary Leads in Nevada Poll

A Research 2000 poll shows Hillary with a lead in Nevada. From the Political Wire:

In Nevada, a new Research 2000 poll released today finds that Sen. Hillary Clinton leads among likely Democratic caucus voters with 32% support, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 20%. John Edwards and Al Gore were tied for third place at 11%.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 38% support, followed by Sen. John McCain at 18% and Newt Gingrich at 11%.

Some observations:

• I don't know who commissioned the poll and no more details are currently available.
• There must be somewhere between 10 to 20% undecideds as the combined tally for the top four is 74%.
• Gore is in the poll even though he's not running (yet? ever?).
• No mention of Richardson.
• It's still very early
  
• And finally: this is a caucus! Not a primary. So, I wonder how soft these numbers are. Only people who are really interested in a candidate will go to the caucus. Organization on the ground is everything.
• As for the Republicans: McCain's numbers suck. He's below 20% and Arizona borders on Nevada. Ouch.
  

Looking Back on January

While I was in the States for the last three weeks, I did get a chance to see a lot of the brouhaha on TV but had hardly a chance to blog about it. So, here is a little January recap.

Candidates announcing in January:

Chris Dodd, Joe Biden

Candidates kinda announcing in January:

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson

Candidates giving up, before announcing, in January:

John Kerry

Candidates waiting for awards (think Oscar and Nobel Peace Prize) before announcing in the fall:

Al Gore

That's basically it. Now, we're just waiting for some of them to show up. I know Edwards has been here. But other than that it is starting to look like this is Bill Richardson's state to lose. Wonder when the big guns will show up. And who of them will actually go into the wild, wild west like Battle Mountain, Ely or Pahrump? Or will they all just stay in Vegas, Reno and Carson Valley? We'll wait and see.

Less than 12 months until the caucus...